Χρηματιστήριο Αξιών Αθηνών
έκθεση ΔΝΤ: βασικές διαπιστώσεις, στόχοι και προκλήσεις
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Σάββατο, 19 Ιανουαρίου 2013
00:11

 

End-September 2012 quantitative fiscal targets were mostly met, with the exception of the performance criterion and indicative target on expenditure arrears, and the performance criterion on government guarantees

Greece continued to adjust through recessionary rather than productivity-boosting channels

The ULC-based REER has now fallen by 14 percent through September from its peak in 2009.

The trailing 12-month cash central government primary balance was close to zero through end-October

Current account adjustment has accelerated: the trailing 12-month deficit reached 5 percent of GDP through end-September (compared with 10 percent during the same period in 2010–11). The deep recession is driving a steep contraction of imports, helping the trade balance. The overall current account also benefitted from the March 2012 debt exchange, which improved the income account balance by 1½ percent of GDP.

Private sector credit declined by almost 5 percent y-on-y in November.

The structural transformation of Greece’s economy continues to proceed at a slow pace (outside of the labor market), and this is making Greece’s adjustment more costly

Privatization targets have been missed by a wide margin

Tax administration reform stalled: reflects deep seated bureaucratic resistance. The tax administration has fallen well short of its performance targets, in areas such as the number of large taxpayer and high wealth individual audits and debt collection. End-December 2012 targets in these areas, set at program approval, will almost certainly be missed.

 

Greece is making progress, but remains some distance from achieving its program objectives

-6 percent of GDP additional primary adjustment is still needed to reach the program target

-only about half of the estimated 20–30 percent pre-program real effective exchange rate overvaluation eliminated.

 

new challenges

-sharp loss of political support for the program

-the deepening recession created further headwinds for fiscal adjustment, increased the burden of Greece’s debt, and

-raised substantially the probability that Greece would get stuck in a weak-confidence, high-debt, low-growth trap

 

_____________________________________

 

ότι πρέπει για να συζητήσουμε το ΣΚ

είμαστε μόλις στο 50% της εσωτερικής υποτίμησης ενώ ο μόνος στόχος που έχει χαθεί σίγουρα (για το Δεκ.2012) είναι ο έλεγχος της εφορίας στα πλούσια φυσικά πρόσωπα

η προσαρμογή προχωράει επειδή ..φτωχαίνουμε, όχι γιατί παράγουμε περισσότερο ή αποδίδουν μεταρρυθμίσεις

 

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